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2024-12-14 11:20:09

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)Dong Ximiao, Principal Investigator of Zhaolian: Support small and medium-sized banks to better establish a long-term mechanism for capital replenishment. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas and firmly hold the bottom line of systemic risks. The meeting also proposed that the risks of local small and medium-sized financial institutions should be properly handled. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, believes that more resolute and effective measures should be taken to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, speed up the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risks. (SSE)Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1%, popular Chinese stock Yum! China rose by 2.8%, bilibili and Baidu rose by over 1.2%, Ali, New Oriental, Ideality, Pinduoduo and Netease rose by at most 1%, and YINN rose by 1.6%.


Russian officials: The failure of sanctions against Russia to achieve geopolitical goals will cost the EU 1.5 trillion euros. On the 12th local time, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko said that Russia has adapted to various sanctions and will develop relations with all countries willing to cooperate. He said that the EU is on a road of self-destruction, and any geopolitical goal cannot be achieved through sanctions. If the EU wants to refuse cooperation with Russia, this is the EU's choice, but most assessments show that this choice has caused the EU to suffer a loss of 1.5 trillion euros.Israel Defense Forces: Syria's air defense system has been seriously damaged; More than 90% of Syria's surface-to-air missiles have been destroyed.The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar will be 1.08 in 2024 and 1.06 in 2025, 2026 and 2027.


Wal-Mart Nuclear Materials: 224G high-speed communication line products have been delivered stably in batches, and Wal-Mart Nuclear Materials has released a record of investor relations activities. The company's demand for high-speed communication line orders continues to grow, and the machines are running at full capacity. It is expected that a number of key equipment will arrive in 2025. The 224G high-speed communication line products of Le Ting Zhilian, a subsidiary, have been delivered to direct customers in batches. In addition, the company's subsidiary has established a long-term and stable supply cooperation relationship with Huawei and signed a confidentiality agreement with it.The European Central Bank predicts that the inflation rate will drop to 2% in the fourth quarter of 2025.On average, the patients who won the bid from more than 6 enterprises for each drug can use the tenth batch of products won by the state in April next year. The reporter learned from the National Medical Insurance Bureau that the tenth batch of centralized drug purchase organized by the state has produced the results of the proposed bid, and 62 drugs have been successfully purchased, all of which have passed the patent period, and are produced by many enterprises and fully competitive. A total of 385 products from 234 enterprises were qualified to be selected, and on average, more than 6 enterprises of each variety planned to win the bid. In April next year, patients can use the bid-winning products after the price reduction of this centralized purchase.

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